Reviewing Rice Price Surge and Rebuilding Supply Policies | Chapter 1Japan's Food Security Policy Amid Global Supply Risks

Global food supply and demand are prone to fluctuations because of population growth and rising incomes, particularly in developing countries, biofuel demand, climate change, natural disasters, infectious diseases, conflicts, and dependence on exporting countries. In 2025/26, production is expected to exceed consumption, but the stocks ratio excluding China is low, making shortages and price increases more likely in the event of a poor harvest.

In 2025/26, global grain production is expected to be 2.98 billion tonnes, consumption 2.96 billion tonnes, and the global ending stocks ratio 26.8%.

Japan's supplied calories consist of 38% domestic production and 62% imports, while the top three import sources together account for approximately 80% of supplied calories. In fiscal 2024, Japan's comprehensive food self-sufficiency rate was 38% on a calorie-supply basis, 64% on a production-value basis, and 46% on an intake-calorie basis.

With fiscal 2030 as the target year, the Basic Plan sets targets of 45% on a calorie-supply basis, 69% on a production-value basis, and 53% on an intake-calorie basis, while promoting expanded domestic production and effective use of farmland, people, water, and production materials.

Global food prices rose after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Although prices for some items later declined, grains and other products have remained above levels recorded before 2008. Agriculture and forestry also impose substantial environmental burdens through greenhouse gas emissions and water use, making sustainability, human rights, and responsible corporate conduct elements of supply policy.

For consumers, changes in import prices, logistics costs, exchange rates, and international conditions affect food prices and supply stability. Among consumers, 80.6% said they were concerned about future food imports, and 32.1% cited climate change and natural disasters as major reasons.

Businesses are expected to strengthen supply chains by changing sourcing locations, reviewing product design, passing on costs through prices, securing inventories, and collecting information. Among food companies that procure foreign agricultural, forestry, and fishery products, 64.1% experienced price increases, while 68.5% cited passing on costs through prices as a measure.

Farmers will need to address declining and aging producers, climate change, and rising production material and fuel costs. At the same time, support for fertilizers made from domestic resources, domestically produced feed, smart agriculture, energy-saving equipment, and varietal improvement can create opportunities to improve profitability and sustainability.

At the regional and policy-operation levels, important measures include local government responses to rising prices, energy efficiency improvements at agricultural irrigation facilities, circulation of regional resources, and cooperation between production areas and end users, in addition to national stockpiles and import policy. Under priority support local grants, 1,959 projects in the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors, totaling 81.5 billion yen, were covered in fiscal 2024.

Internationally, Japan needs to combine investment in ports and collection facilities, intergovernmental dialogue with import sources, EPA and FTA agreements, international rulemaking, and responses to sustainability and human rights, while reducing dependence on specific countries.

By commodity, 2025/26 production is expected to reach 840 million tonnes of wheat, 1.3 billion tonnes of corn, 540 million tonnes of rice, and 430 million tonnes of soybeans. The leading countries account for 69.5% of wheat production, 78.4% of corn production, and 90.6% of soybean production, so developments in exporting countries influence international markets. Biofuel demand is also increasing; 2034 consumption is forecast at 156.46 million kiloliters for bioethanol and 81.24 million kiloliters for biodiesel.

Domestic production policy promotes productivity improvements for wheat, soybeans, and other crops, conversion to upland fields, infrastructure development, crop rotation, high-yield varieties, and smart agriculture. Priorities for vegetables include meeting processing and food-service demand; for fruit, they include consolidating orchards, labor-saving tree forms, and securing new farmers. Livestock policy combines herd conversion, business succession, robots, AI, IoT, domestically produced feed, compost circulation, animal welfare, and livestock GAP.

Japan is highly dependent on imports of fertilizer raw materials, although dependence on China for ammonium phosphate declined from 90% to 72%. As of the end of March 2026, stockpiles covered 2.4 months of demand for ammonium phosphate and 3 months for potassium chloride. In fiscal 2024, feed supply reached 23.677 million TDN tonnes, the self-sufficiency rate was 26%, imported feed grains totaled 13.1 million tonnes, and stockpiles were approximately 1 million tonnes.

The government will raise the share of domestic resources in fertilizer use from 25% in 2021 to 40% by 2030. Under the Act on Measures for Food Supply Difficulties, the government manages supply and demand information, stockpiles, imports, and supply chains during normal times. When signs emerge, it establishes a government response headquarters and makes voluntary requests to businesses. If the situation worsens, it can instruct businesses above a certain scale to submit shipping, import, and production plans.

The Act's basic policy uses as a guideline for determining signs of difficulty a nationwide decrease of 20% or more from a normal year in the supply of a specific food item, or the risk of such a decrease. At the stage when minimum necessary food supplies may not be secured, the criterion is the risk that supplied calories will fall below 1,850 kcal per person per day. The government stockpiles approximately 1 million tonnes of rice, 2.3 months of foreign wheat demand for food, and approximately 1 month of feed grains.

Agricultural imports totaled 9.8431 trillion yen in 2025, and the top six countries accounted for approximately 60%. Japan depended on Canada, the United States, and Australia for 99.8% of its wheat imports, while dependence on the top two countries for corn and soybeans also reached 80% or more. The government is promoting dialogue with Brazil, the United States, and others, strengthening port functions, investing in overseas facilities, and sharing information with import businesses.

As of the end of December 2025, there were 417 EPA, FTA, and similar agreements worldwide. As of the end of March 2026, 22 EPA, FTA, and similar agreements involving Japan had entered into force or been signed. Japan is promoting not only import stabilization but also diversification of export destinations, international standards, sustainable food systems, human rights due diligence, and agricultural cooperation with developing countries.

The overall policy is not based on the single solution of simply increasing domestic production. Instead, it links stronger foundations of farmland, human resources, technology, and materials with public and private stockpiles, diversified import sources and logistics, phased responses during crises, and international cooperation to maintain supplies from normal times through unforeseen situations.