Overview of the 2026 White Paper on Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism | Chapter 1Rebuilding Infrastructure for Growth Amid Population Decline

In this white paper, infrastructure refers to physical social capital under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, as well as the hardware and software foundations that include transportation services provided by private businesses and others.

Nominal GDP increased by approximately 100 trillion yen about every five years from fiscal 1970 onward. After exceeding 500 trillion yen in fiscal 1992, it remained around the 500-trillion-yen level for more than 30 years. It exceeded 600 trillion yen in fiscal 2023 and reached 642.4 trillion yen in fiscal 2024.

While nominal GDP increased against a backdrop of higher prices, real GDP remained flat because of declines in real wages and purchasing power. In fiscal 2024, nominal GDP was 642.4 trillion yen and real GDP was 552.3 trillion yen.

In the breakdown of nominal GDP for fiscal 2024, private final consumption was 340.4 trillion yen, or 53.0%; private business investment was 119.2 trillion yen, or 18.6%; government final consumption was 129.1 trillion yen, or 20.1%; and public fixed capital formation was 32.0 trillion yen, or 5.0%.

Potential growth exceeded 4% year on year during the 1980s but declined from the 1990s onward, remaining at 1% or less from 2000 onward. Growth accounting identifies labor input, capital input, and total factor productivity as the three drivers of growth.

The total population turned to decline after peaking at 128.08 million people in 2008 and is projected to reach 104.69 million people in 2050 and 87.00 million people in 2070. The aging rate is expected to be 37.1% in 2050 and 38.7% in 2070.

Social infrastructure development produces short-term flow effects, generating production, employment, and income through public investment, as well as stock effects that continue to emerge after completion, including safety, quality of life, and higher productivity.

Access to transportation networks and logistics hubs, along with safety, affects the selection of business locations. In a survey of manufacturing and transportation businesses, 48.4% placed the highest priority on well-developed transportation networks, making them a foundation that influences domestic corporate investment and location decisions.

The number of construction industry workers fell from approximately 6.98 million in the 1990s to approximately 4.62 million in fiscal 2024. Under labor shortages, reducing the labor required for tasks and reallocating human resources will be important for continuing infrastructure development and maintenance and logistics services.

Natural disasters cause major losses not only of human life but also of assets, production, and services. For a Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake, estimates assume up to approximately 298,000 deaths, direct damage of approximately 224.9 trillion yen, and total damage of approximately 270.3 trillion yen. Disaster prevention and national resilience are therefore directly linked to the continuity of economic activity.

Growth in travel demand to Japan generates foreign-exchange earnings and regional employment, but the three major metropolitan areas accounted for approximately 67% of total nights spent by international visitors in 2025. The challenge is to distribute demand across regions while limiting congestion, impacts on residents' lives, and declines in traveler satisfaction.

Time lost to road congestion is equivalent to approximately 3.70 million people's annual working hours. Among logistics businesses and others, 57.8% cited lost transportation time as an issue, so easing congestion and securing alternative routes affect corporate productivity and the reduction of drivers' burdens.

Both the public and businesses view measures to address aging infrastructure and maintenance as the highest-priority issue in public investment. The issue was selected by 44.8% of the public and 70.7% of businesses, indicating strong expectations for policy management that maintains safety and infrastructure functions despite limited fiscal resources.

From 1988 to 2025, Shinkansen lines expanded from 1,832 km to 2,956 km, and high-standard trunk roads expanded from 4,387 km to 12,307 km. Airports with runways of at least 2,000 m increased from 33 to 66, while the population coverage rate for wastewater treatment through sewerage and other systems rose from 62% to 94%. However, incomplete sections remain on high-standard roads and newly constructed Shinkansen lines.

To capture international air travel demand, Haneda and Narita aim to achieve annual takeoff and landing capacity of about 1 million times through measures including new and expanded runways at Narita Airport. In ports, 2024 container throughput was 51.51 million TEU in Shanghai, 41.12 million TEU in Singapore, and 24.40 million TEU in Busan, highlighting the challenge of the gap with Asian hub ports.

Across 12 fields under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, future maintenance and renewal costs are expected to increase by up to 1.3 times in 20 and 30 years, even with preventive maintenance as the basic approach. If the budget share required for existing infrastructure stocks rises, there is concern that new stock investment will be constrained.

By March 2040, the shares of social infrastructure more than 50 years old are expected to reach approximately 75% of road bridges, 53% of tunnels, 64% of river management facilities, 41% of water pipelines, 35% of sewer pipes, and 66% of port facilities. In response to the growing management burden, municipal civil engineering departments had approximately 90,000 staff in 2024.

The free-flow speed on all roads is 61 km/h, but congestion and other factors cause time losses of approximately 40%. The infrastructure most expected by businesses to improve logistics efficiency is the development and expansion of the expressway network, at 34.0%. Expectations that logistics infrastructure development will shorten truck drivers' working hours and reduce their burdens stood at 29.1%.

The share of renewable energy in the power mix rose from approximately 10.4% in fiscal 2011 to approximately 23.1% in fiscal 2024. The fiscal 2030 target is 36–38%, and the policy is to expand deployment while energy self-sufficiency remains low.

From 2019 to 2023, government investment related to AI was 1 billion dollars in Japan and 32.9 billion dollars in the United States. In 2025, private AI investment was 1.11 billion dollars in Japan and 285.88 billion dollars in the United States, while only 10.5% of businesses in construction and transportation had adopted AI.

The government plans to implement public-private investment road maps for 17 strategic fields under the Japan Growth Strategy, including AI and semiconductors, shipbuilding, port logistics, disaster prevention, and national resilience. The Sixth Priority Plan for Social Infrastructure Development and the Third Basic Plan on Transport Policy were both approved by the Cabinet in January 2026, with fiscal 2030 as the end of their planning periods.

Long-term investment plans are advancing overseas. The United Kingdom's 10-year infrastructure strategy will invest 725 billion pounds from 2025 to 2035, while Germany's special fund will invest 500 billion euros from 2025 to 2037. The EU's Trans-European Transport Network core network is expected to raise total EU GDP in 2030 by approximately 1.6% compared with a scenario without additional investment, if developed as planned.