FY2026 Long-Term Sanma Forecast: Eastern Hokkaido to Joban

On July 28, 2026, a Fisheries Agency of Japan press release announced a sanma fishery outlook for the waters from eastern Hokkaido to the Joban area for August through December 2026, compiled by the Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency.

The Fisheries Resources Research Institute of the Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency compiled this year’s ocean conditions and sanma fishery outlook based on resource survey results and other information from relevant research institutions. This fishery and ocean forecast is conducted under the Fisheries Agency of Japan’s Fisheries Resource Survey and Assessment Promotion Project.

This fishery and ocean forecast is intended to improve operational efficiency and business stability for fishers and distribution and processing operators, and to promote the rational and sustainable use of resources.

The fishery outlook expects small sanma schools to arrive mainly in the high seas from 152°E to 168°E, extending from off Hokkaido to east of Urup Island, from August to September, and schools to arrive mainly in the high seas west of 160°E in October.

For August through early September, the northern limit of the Kuroshio Extension in nearby waters is expected to be slightly north of its usual position, the southern limit of the first Oyashio branch considerably north of its usual position, leaving a cold-water area in the coastal waters off Sanriku, and the southern limit of the second Oyashio branch extremely north of its usual position.

Age-1 fish refers to fish predicted to reach a body length of 29 cm or more during the fishing season from August onward in a typical year. However, annual size variation has been substantial in recent years.