110th Pension Actuarial Subcommittee: FY2024 Public Pension Finances

Based on reports from each system and implementing institution, the Pension Actuarial Subcommittee analyzes and evaluates the public pension finances across systems each fiscal year and prepares a report that includes comparisons with the actuarial valuation. FY2024 was the first year for comparing actual results with the assumptions and future projections of the 2024 actuarial valuation.

System-wide revenue consisted of 43.1 trillion yen in contributions, 12.1 trillion yen in national treasury and public economic contributions, and total revenue excluding investment gains and losses of 55.7 trillion yen. Expenditure was 55.8 trillion yen, including 55.3 trillion yen in benefit payments, resulting in a negative annual balance of 0.1 trillion yen.

Investment gains and losses on a market-value basis were positive at 2.0 trillion yen, and reserves at the end of the fiscal year increased by 2.0 trillion yen from the end of the previous fiscal year to 306.0 trillion yen.

Although actual numbers of insured persons and reserves exceeded future projections, the total fertility rate was approximately at the same level as the low-birth assumption, while real wage growth was below the assumptions for all cases. If these deviations persist over the medium to long term, their effects on pension finances will be substantial.

In FY2024, the reserve deviation for employees’ pensions as a whole ranged from negative 12.9 trillion yen to negative 11.4 trillion yen. However, as a ratio to the funding used as the assessment benchmark, it was positive at 0.7% to 0.8%, or positive at 1.1% to 1.2% after smoothing.

Trends in births, deaths, work styles, and the net inflow of foreign nationals are related to the composition of insured persons and future system operation. Continuous analysis was therefore considered necessary, without being swayed by changes in a single fiscal year.

The report consists of Chapter 1, which covers the fundamentals of public pensions; Chapter 2, which analyzes actual results for insured persons, beneficiaries, fiscal revenue and expenditure, and fiscal indicators; Chapter 3, which addresses comparisons with the 2024 actuarial valuation and reserve deviations; and supplementary materials. Employees’ pensions as a whole include mutual aid associations and other organizations, and present the overall picture after offsetting contributions and grants within the system.

Among insured persons, the number of National Pension Category 1 and Category 3 insured persons continued to decline, while the number of employees’ pension insured persons increased. After the expanded coverage of short-time workers, the number covered increased, and by the end of FY2024, the peaks of the age distribution and standard monthly remuneration distribution had shifted toward older ages and higher grades.

The new “Concurrent Receipt Status of Old-Age Basic Pensions” statistic matched individuals by basic pension number and aggregated old-age basic pensions with old-age employees’ pensions and survivors’ employees’ pensions. There were 4.92 million recipients of both old-age basic pensions and survivors’ employees’ pensions, including 4.83 million women, and the average monthly pension amount was 137,000 yen.

In the same statistic, there were 3.98 million recipients of old-age basic pensions only, compared with 5.81 million people in the old-age-only category in existing statistics. The average monthly pension amount for women was 94,000 yen in the new statistic, compared with 79,000 yen in existing statistics, while survivors’ employees’ pensions were 131,000 yen compared with 85,000 yen, demonstrating the difference in aggregation methods that include concurrent receipt.