FY2026 Report: Challenges of a Full-Scale Shift to a Growth-Oriented Economy | Chapter 4Changes in Labor Demand and Job Market Challenges

While the sense of labor shortages remains high, new job openings and the effective job-openings-to-applicants ratio have declined from their peak at the end of 2022, and the share of new hires who found employment through Hello Work also fell from 24% in 2013 to 16% in 2024.

While the number of employees is increasing, working hours per person are declining; by occupation, production-process workers are shrinking, while service workers and professional and technical occupations are expanding. The spread of AI may further accelerate this structural change.

To move personnel into occupations with growing demand, companies need to combine not only transfers but also mid-career hiring, wage increases, training, and support for obtaining qualifications. Improving working conditions, especially for operational and professional positions, can help alleviate labor shortages.

For policy management, the challenge is to promote reskilling in necessary fields and smooth labor mobility while maintaining Hello Work's safety-net function for older people and small and medium-sized enterprises, even as the private market handles job openings for younger people and jobs related to new technologies.

AI is especially likely to replace routine document preparation, schedule coordination, and accounting, finance, and tax work. Regarding the effects of AI adoption, reducing workload and improving efficiency was the most common response at 91%, but only 25.4% of respondents said generative AI had shortened their working hours.

At Hello Work, the share of job seekers aged 65 and over rose from 1.9% in 2002 to 15.0% in 2025, while the matching rate has remained in the mid-4% range in recent years. The decline in the matching rate among younger people is affecting overall efficiency.

Analysis of job-posting information found that jobs mentioning AI accounted for 0.25% of all postings in 2025, including 0.4% of private job advertisements and 0.05% of Hello Work postings. Descriptions of childcare leave, training, and qualification support are also considered effective for filling jobs, and conditions beyond wages influence matching as well.