Forecasting Ship Demand to Support Global Seaborne Trade

Japan depends on overseas sources for much of its energy and food, while seaborne transport, which handles more than 99% of trade volume, supports people's lives and economic activities.

Shipbuilding, which stably supplies ships essential to seaborne transport, is a vital foundational industry for economic security.

Japan's shipbuilding industry faces intense international competition and its construction volume is trending downward, while demand is expected to expand for next-generation ships, including zero-emission ships.

This forecast is expected to provide foundational information for future policymaking.

It is expected to provide important material when shipping and shipbuilding businesses make medium- to long-term investment decisions.

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism states that it will advance consideration of a vision for further growth of Japan's shipbuilding industry based on the demand outlook.

The Maritime Bureau of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism conducted the forecast to establish the optimal system for supplying next-generation ships and other vessels and to develop foundational information that contributes to ensuring economic security related to ship supply.

The Future Ship Demand Forecasting Task Force, composed of academic experts, the shipping industry, the shipbuilding industry, and relevant ministries and agencies, conducted the study.

Transport demand and the required fleet size were estimated based on future scenarios through 2050 prepared by international organizations and others, and shipbuilding demand was calculated. The scope included ships needed for economic activities such as energy supply and demand, as well as cargo ships to meet new transport demand.