FSA Analytical Notes (2026.7), Vol. 2 Published

As the business environments and earnings structures of financial institutions change, it is considered important to understand economic and market trends and accurately identify the management conditions of individual financial institutions and the resilience and vulnerabilities of the financial system as a whole.

The Financial Services Agency is conducting analyses using granular data, such as lending data and individual company data, and plans to publish some of these analyses as FSA Analytical Notes, a collection of data-analysis case studies by the Financial Services Agency.

The developed default model is expected to be applicable to estimating the impact on credit costs resulting from changes in expected losses by multiplying exposure by loss given default (LGD).

Using bank loan-detail data and other data from a joint data platform, along with company information from an external vendor, the analysis examined lending by major banks and other institutions to overseas borrowers. By region, lending was concentrated on North America, Asia, and Europe; by industry, it was concentrated on financial and manufacturing companies, with performing borrowers accounting for the large majority. Differences in lending periods and lending rates were also observed by currency.

Although the proportion of overseas borrowers located in the United States was high, a corresponding share of borrowers whose ultimate parent company was in Japan, known as the Global Ultimate Owner, was also included.

A trial analysis was conducted of the correlation between lending rates for business operators and default rates, using anonymized financial and credit data on companies borrowing from regional banks, together with loan-detail data and other information.

Differences by type of deposit-taking financial institution and regional differences were identified in trends such as outstanding deposit balances and deposit interest rates. Quantitative analysis of the factors behind changes in outstanding deposit balances suggested a correlation between changes in deposit balances over the past several years and deposit interest rates.