According to the latest announcement from the Ministry of Finance Policy Research Institute, a comprehensive analysis was presented in the lecture "How to Revive the Japanese Economy" by Hiroaki Miyamoto regarding Japan's long-term decline and possibilities for resurgence. The lecture introduced the "40-year cycle theory," suggesting that Japan may hit "bottom" in 2025, following the end of the Edo period (1865) and defeat in the Pacific War (1945). The current Japanese economy is characterized by long-term decline marked by the "3 Lows and 1 High Japanese Disease" (low growth, low prices, low wages, high debt).
Specific indicators show that Japan's world ranking in nominal GDP per capita has fallen from the top tier in the early 1990s to the 30s currently, with similar decline seen in the IMD World Competitiveness Ranking. In terms of wages, while other G7 countries have risen to around 140-150 with 1997 as 100, Japan alone has remained flat. In income distribution, a phenomenon called "collective poverty" has emerged, with incomes declining across all income brackets, and average income falling from 6.65 million yen in 1998 to 5.52 million yen in 2018. Furthermore, general government debt has exceeded 260% of GDP, the highest level in the world.
On the other hand, signs that the "economic tide" is changing are also visible. Positive changes are occurring, including the shift from deflation to inflation, rising stock prices, and corporate profits and investments reaching record highs. The Ministry of Finance Policy Research Institute suggests that 2025 may be a turning point for the Japanese economy, while emphasizing that addressing structural problems is key to resurgence.