Empirical Analysis of Loss-Making Corporations Using Individual Corporate Tax Return Data: Economic Analysis Using Administrative Data

A paper published in the Ministry of Finance Policy Research Institute's "Financial Review" Issue 160. Professor Takero Doi and his research team conducted a comprehensive analysis of loss-making corporations (deficit corporations) in Japan using individual corporate tax return data.

Key Points

1. Research Overview

  • Authors: Takero Doi (Keio University), Shunichiro Bessho (Waseda University), Katsuki Mori (Former Education Officer, Tax College Research Department)
  • Research Subject: Empirical analysis of loss-making corporations based on corporate tax return data
  • Research Question: Understanding the phenomenon where approximately 70% of Japanese corporations are loss-making
  • Data: Individual corporate tax return data (anonymized)

2. Data Characteristics

  • Data Scale: Tax return data for all corporations (approximately 3 million companies)
  • Information Detail:
    • Major financial statement items
    • Detailed loss information
    • Corporate attributes (capital, industry, establishment year, etc.)
  • Time Series: Panel data covering multiple years
  • Coverage: Virtually all corporations excluding dormant companies

3. Distribution of Loss-Making Corporations by Income and Loss Amount Classes

  • Loss-Making Corporation Ratio:
    • Approximately 70% of all corporations are loss-making
    • Consistently high levels
  • Loss Amount Distribution:
    • Small-scale losses constitute the majority
    • Corporations with massive losses are few
  • Loss Carryforward:
    • Long-term accumulation
    • Impact of deduction restrictions

4. Distribution by Corporate Tax Amount Classes

  • Characteristics of Tax-Paying Corporations:
    • Approximately 30% of total
    • Concentrated among large corporations
    • Stable revenue base
  • Tax Revenue Contribution:
    • Tax revenue concentration among top corporations
    • Limited contribution from SMEs
  • Effective Tax Rate Reality: Burden rate after loss deduction

5. Distribution of Loss-Making Corporations by Capital Classes

  • Patterns by Size:
    • Higher loss-making corporation ratio among SMEs
    • Certain proportion exists even among large corporations
    • Discontinuity around 100 million yen capital
  • Relationship with Business Reality:
    • Impact of paper companies
    • Deficit reporting for tax saving purposes
    • Presence or absence of substantial business activities

6. Distribution of Loss-Making Corporations by Industry

  • Inter-Industry Disparities:
    • High loss rates in service and retail industries
    • Relatively low in manufacturing
    • Peculiarities of real estate industry
  • Industry Characteristic Effects:
    • High or low entry barriers
    • Economic sensitivity
    • Presence or absence of regulations

7. Distribution by Family vs. Non-Family Companies

  • Family Company Characteristics:
    • Higher loss-making corporation ratio
    • Possibility of income adjustment
    • Relationship with executive compensation
  • Non-Family Companies:
    • Relatively lower loss rates
    • Effect of external monitoring
  • Governance Impact: Degree of separation between ownership and management

8. Dynamics Between Loss-Making and Profit-Making Corporations

  • State Transition Analysis:
    • Probability of transition from loss to profit
    • Probability of falling from profit to loss
    • State persistence
  • Corporate Life Cycle:
    • Loss period after establishment
    • Profitability in maturity
    • Characteristics of decline phase
  • Policy Change Impact: Response to tax reform

9. Conclusions and Policy Implications

  • Major Findings:
    • Heterogeneity of loss-making corporations
    • Structural and cyclical factors
    • Possibility of tax avoidance
  • Policy Implications:
    • Corporate tax system challenges
    • Review of SME tax system
    • Strengthening tax enforcement
  • Future Research Topics:
    • Longer-term panel analysis
    • International comparative studies
    • Clarification of microeconomic foundations

This research empirically reveals the structural challenges facing Japan's corporate tax system and provides groundbreaking results offering important implications for future tax reform discussions.

※ This summary was automatically generated by AI. Please refer to the original article for accuracy.