This war situation analysis report by NIDS U.S.-Europe-Russia Research Office Director Hiroshi Yamazoe covers the Russia-Ukraine War from April to June 2025. It provides detailed reporting on major military developments during this period and diplomatic developments including U.S. Trump administration mediation efforts.
Key Points
1. Russian Military's Main Attack Directions and Results
- 110,000 Russian soldiers deployed around Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast (announced by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi)
- May territorial gains: 449km², June: 556km² (DeepStateUA analysis)
- Recorded largest advance since November 2024's 730km²
- Captured main urban areas of Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, attempting westward advance
2. End of Ukrainian Operations in Kursk Oblast
- April 26: Chief of General Staff Gerasimov reported completion of Kursk Oblast recovery to President Putin
- North Korea contributed with troop deployment under Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty
- Russian forces subsequently entered Sumy Oblast, but Ukraine recaptured Andriivka in June
- Front lines stabilized without major city capture crises
3. Russian Military Losses
- Total casualties exceed 1 million (Ukrainian announcement)
- Currently about 1,000 casualties per day continue
- Lost 2,000 tanks, 3,200 infantry fighting vehicles and other equipment in 1.5 years
- Vulnerabilities in labor force and oil/gas industry becoming apparent
4. U.S. Trump Administration Peace Mediation Efforts
- April 24: After Kyiv attack, President Trump demanded Putin stop attacks
- April 30: Ukraine-U.S. mineral resources development agreement signed
- May 10: Major European countries and Ukraine proposed 30-day unconditional complete ceasefire
- June 25: NATO summit evaluated increased defense spending by member nations
5. Resumption and Results of Russia-Ukraine Direct Negotiations
- May 11: President Putin proposed direct negotiations for first time in 3 years
- May 16, June 2: Negotiations held in Istanbul (Presidential Aide Medinsky as representative)
- Both rounds agreed on and implemented prisoner exchanges
- Russia demanded Ukraine's withdrawal from its territory, end of military cooperation with foreign countries, ban on anti-Russian political activities
6. Ukraine's Large-Scale Counterattack Operation
- June 1: SBU launched "Spider Web (Pavutina)" operation
- Attacked 4 Russian air bases with over 100 drones
- Damaged over 40 aircraft including Tu-95MS bombers and A-50 AWACS
- Carefully selected targets to avoid nuclear force bombers, focusing on Ukraine attack bombers
The article provides detailed analysis showing that while Russia maintains tactical advantages, it has not achieved decisive victory, diplomatic efforts cannot bridge position differences, and destruction and attrition continue.