Understanding the Times: Series (42) North Korea's New Nuclear Doctrine

This seminar material by NIDS researcher Masaki Asami analyzes North Korea's new nuclear doctrine (nuclear force policy). It explains the characteristics of the new nuclear doctrine adopted in 2022 and the changes it indicates in North Korea's nuclear strategy.

Key Points

1. Background of New Nuclear Doctrine Adoption

  • Adopted "On the Nuclear Force Policy of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea" in 2022
  • First revision of nuclear doctrine in approximately 10 years
  • Changed to more specific and offensive content
  • New nuclear strategy intended to seize initiative in conflicts

2. Expansion and Change in Nuclear Role

  • Shift from nuclear weapons for deterrence to actual use
  • Concept of preventing escalation from limited nuclear use to full-scale war
  • Aiming to achieve "escalation dominance"
  • Strategy to gain advantage by making opponents anticipate nuclear use in inter-Korean conflicts

3. Clarification of Nuclear Use Conditions

  • When an attack on the country is judged imminent
  • Enhancing deterrent effect by demonstrating clear "retaliation"
  • Possibility of preemptive use upon detecting signs of attack
  • Contrasts with 2016 first nuclear test declaration of no first use

4. Command and Control System Challenges

  • Response when Kim Jong Un becomes unable to exercise command and control
  • Suggests building system for automatic nuclear attacks
  • Possibility of authority delegation to frontline units
  • Questions remain about whether command structure will function

5. Impact of Nuclear Doctrine Adoption

  • Recognition that North Korea has established an offensive position through self-confidence
  • Aiming to establish status as de facto "nuclear weapons state"
  • Deterioration of inter-Korean and U.S.-North Korea relations on Korean Peninsula
  • Response to changes in regional security environment

6. NIDS Seminar Briefing Information

  • Date/Time: July 26 (Fri) 3:00-4:00 PM
  • Location: Ichigaya F1 Building 6F "International Conference Hall"
  • Participants: Ministry of Defense personnel (limited to SDF members)
  • Contact: NIDS Planning and Coordination Division 03-3268-3111 (ext. 29177)

The article reveals that North Korea is attempting to seize initiative in conflicts on the Korean Peninsula by transitioning to a more aggressive and practical nuclear strategy through its nuclear force policy revision.

※ This summary was automatically generated by AI. Please refer to the original article for accuracy.