Consumer Trends Survey (September 2026)

The Consumer Trends Survey (September 2026) aims to assess consumer sentiment about future living conditions, price expectations, and ownership of major durable goods, and to provide basic information for judging economic trends. The report consists of “Summary of Survey Results,” with “1. Consumer Sentiment” and “2. Price Expectations,” time series tables, notes on use, and the questionnaire.

The results presented are for households with two or more people. Figures for single-person households and all households are published on the Consumer Trends Survey page of e-Stat, the government's portal for official statistics.

The survey population is approximately 54.11 million households nationwide, excluding foreign nationals, students, and households in institutional accommodations (2020 Population Census). The sample consists of 8,400 households: 5,376 households with two or more people and 3,024 single-person households, selected through three-stage sampling of municipalities, survey units, and households. Each household is surveyed for 15 consecutive months. Households are divided into 15 groups, and one group begins the survey each month. The reference date is September 15, 2026. There were 6,698 valid responses (79.7%): 4,372 from households with two or more people (81.3%) and 2,326 from single-person households (76.9%). The number of responding households varies by survey item.

The Prime Minister supervises the survey, which is conducted once a month by a private-sector contractor. Questionnaires are distributed by mail, and responses are accepted by mail or through the Government Statistics Shared Use System. Survey Research Center, Inc. is the contractor for fiscal years 2026 and 2027. Consumer sentiment, price expectations, and household circumstances are surveyed monthly; ownership and replacement status of major durable goods are surveyed in March.

In September, the seasonally adjusted index for income growth rose 0.1 points from the previous month to 40.5, and the employment environment index rose 0.1 points to 40.0. The living conditions index fell 0.3 points to 33.8, and the willingness to buy durable goods index fell 0.2 points to 27.3. The asset value sentiment index fell 0.5 points to 45.3. The consumer attitude index is calculated as the simple average of the first four indicators.

Consumers’ price expectations one year ahead were: “Prices will rise (5% or more),” 47.6%; “Prices will rise (2% or more but less than 5%),” 31.7%; and “Prices will rise (less than 2%),” 11.3%. “Prices will remain unchanged” accounted for 3.8%, “Prices will fall” totaled 3.3%, and “Don’t know” accounted for 2.3%. From the previous month, the combined share expecting prices to rise increased by 1.6 percentage points, the combined share expecting prices to fall decreased by 1.3 percentage points, and the share expecting no change decreased by 0.8 percentage points.

The consumer sentiment indicators ask respondents to assess the outlook for the next six months on five items: living conditions, income growth, employment environment, willingness to buy durable goods, and asset value. Each response category is assigned a score, multiplied by its share, and summed. The consumer attitude index is the simple average of the four items excluding asset value. Seasonal adjustment uses Census Bureau X-12-ARIMA, and seasonally adjusted figures are revised retroactively when the March survey results are published each year.