FY2026 Q3 Corporate Business Forecast Survey Results

The “Corporate Business Forecast Survey (July–September 2026 Survey) Results Overview” presents the results of a quarterly statistical survey published by the Cabinet Office and Ministry of Finance. The survey is conducted quarterly to understand corporate activities, which account for a major part of economic activity, and to obtain basic materials on current economic conditions and future prospects. The survey date was August 15, 2026. Judgment items cover July–September 2026, the end of September 2026, October–December 2026, the end of December 2026, January–March 2027, and the end of March 2027. Numerical items cover estimated actual results for FY2026, while quarterly capital investment covers estimated actual results for July–September 2026.

The results are organized around five items—“your company’s business conditions,” “business conditions in Japan,” “employment,” “corporate earnings,” and “capital investment”—along with two additional topics: “capital-investment targets for the current fiscal year” and “the effects of labor shortages on company management.” The content enables comparisons by enterprise size and industry of current judgments and future outlooks for business conditions, employment, and equipment.

The BSI is an indicator calculated by subtracting the proportion of companies responding “decline” from the proportion responding “improvement,” compared with the previous period or a reference point. For example, if improvement is 40.0%, unchanged is 25.0%, decline is 30.0%, and unknown is 5.0%, the BSI is 10.0 percentage points.

Regarding the effects of labor shortages on company management, “increased workload and working hours” was the largest effect among large enterprises at 62.8%, followed by “higher labor costs accompanying wage increases” at 41.7% and “increased recruitment costs” at 41.5%. In manufacturing, “stagnation of skills transfer and human-resource development” was 48.1%, while the same effect was 30.8% among small and medium-sized enterprises.

“Increased workload and working hours” was the largest labor-shortage impact among mid-sized enterprises at 58.5%, while “higher labor costs accompanying wage increases” was the largest impact among small and medium-sized enterprises at 47.1%.

For “your company’s business conditions,” the current BSI for all industries in July–September 2026 was 5.3 percentage points for large enterprises, 0.8 percentage points for mid-sized enterprises, and -10.9 percentage points for small and medium-sized enterprises. Large enterprises exceeded “improvement” for the first time in two periods since January–March 2026. The outlook for October–December 2026 is 6.0 for large enterprises, 5.0 for mid-sized enterprises, and -2.8 for small and medium-sized enterprises; for January–March 2027, the figures are 4.6, 2.7, and -6.4, respectively. Industries making major contributions for large enterprises include production machinery manufacturing at 23.4, information and communications machinery manufacturing at 19.9, and services at 7.6.

For “business conditions in Japan,” the current BSI for July–September 2026 was 2.9 percentage points for large enterprises, -4.3 for mid-sized enterprises, and -19.2 for small and medium-sized enterprises. Large enterprises exceeded “improvement” for the first time in two periods. The outlook for October–December 2026 and January–March 2027 is 2.4 and 1.8, respectively, for large enterprises. Mid-sized and small and medium-sized enterprises are expected to continue exceeding “decline” in both periods, with figures of -0.7 and -2.0 for mid-sized enterprises and -13.6 and -13.8 for small and medium-sized enterprises.

For “employment,” the employee-count BSI at the end of September 2026 was 26.7 percentage points for large enterprises, 22.8 for manufacturing, 28.5 for non-manufacturing, 34.3 for mid-sized enterprises, and 27.8 for small and medium-sized enterprises, all exceeding “insufficient.” The outlooks for the end of December 2026 and the end of March 2027 also exceed “insufficient” for all enterprise sizes.

For “corporate earnings,” FY2026 sales are expected to increase by 4.1% across all industries, 5.7% in manufacturing, and 3.5% in non-manufacturing. Ordinary profit is expected to increase by 2.3% across all industries, 5.8% in manufacturing, and 1.0% in non-manufacturing. Sales exclude finance and insurance. Estimates are based on corporations that responded for both FY2025 and FY2026, covering 8,152 companies for sales and 8,759 companies for ordinary profit.

For “capital investment,” the BSI for equipment needed for production and sales at the end of September 2026 was 4.4 percentage points for large enterprises, 5.8 for mid-sized enterprises, and 9.7 for small and medium-sized enterprises, all exceeding “shortage.” FY2026 capital investment is expected to increase by 11.0% across all industries, 12.7% in manufacturing, and 10.2% in non-manufacturing. The figures include software investment and exclude land purchases. New installations of tangible fixed assets and software are treated as capital investment.

“Capital-investment targets for the current fiscal year” are presented as the composition of responding companies based on multiple answers, limited to three of ten items. Across all industries, the most important targets for large enterprises were software at 55.7%, machinery and equipment for production and sales, excluding information equipment, at 49.4%, and tools, equipment and fixtures at 35.8%, in that order. Software ranked first for mid-sized enterprises at 51.4%, while tools, equipment and fixtures ranked first for small and medium-sized enterprises at 44.9%.

The survey covers corporations with capital of at least 10 million yen. “Large enterprises” are defined as corporations with capital of at least 1 billion yen, “mid-sized enterprises” as those with capital of at least 100 million yen but less than 1 billion yen, and “small and medium-sized enterprises” as those with capital of at least 10 million yen but less than 100 million yen. For “electricity, gas and water” and “finance and insurance,” only corporations with capital of at least 100 million yen are covered. Across all industries, the population was 877,075 corporations, the sample was 14,448 corporations, responses totaled 11,244 corporations, and the response rate was 77.8%.

The BSI for business conditions is the composition of companies responding “improvement” minus those responding “decline,” compared with the previous quarter. The equipment judgment is calculated as the composition of companies responding “shortage” minus those responding “excess,” while the employee-count judgment is calculated as “somewhat insufficient” minus “somewhat excessive” at the end of the quarter. The next scheduled publication date is December 10, 2026 (Thursday), although the scheduled publication date may change.