Output Gap, Potential Growth, and Labor Supply-Demand Indicators

To assess economic and price conditions, the Bank of Japan Statistics Department regularly estimates and publishes the “output gap,” which captures the macroeconomic balance between supply and demand, and the “potential growth rate,” which reflects Japan’s long-term growth capacity.

In recent years, against a backdrop of increasingly constrained labor supply, fluctuations in labor input and the balance between labor supply and demand are considered to have had a growing impact on economic activity and price developments in labor-intensive sectors.

The charts and data provided are intended to supply information to a broad range of users interested in finance and the economy, but they may be changed, revised, or discontinued without notice.

When quoting, reprinting, or reproducing the material, the source must be identified; for commercial purposes, consultation with the Bank of Japan Statistics Department is required.

The output gap, potential growth rate, and labor supply-demand indicators are published together on this website. The regular publication date is generally the third business day of January, April, July, and October, and data and charts were posted on July 3, 2026.

The detailed reference material “Review of the Output Gap and Potential Growth Rate and Complementary Use of Labor Supply-Demand Indicators” by the Statistics Department (2026) is provided. The estimates differ considerably depending on the methodology and contain various estimation errors, so they need to be evaluated with sufficient latitude.