How Media Prepare for the Nankai Trough Megaearthquake

Overview

This research and analysis by NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute examines media responses to Nankai Trough earthquake emergency information. Published on August 1, 2025, this research was compiled by researchers Satoshi Yamamoto and Ken Furusawa from the Media Research Department, and Junnosuke Nakayama from the Public Opinion Research Department. It provides a comprehensive analysis of media coverage verification and future challenges surrounding the "Nankai Trough Earthquake Emergency Information" first issued on August 8, 2024. ## First Issuance of Nankai Trough Earthquake Emergency Information On August 8, 2024, following a magnitude 7.1 earthquake originating in the Hyuga-nada, the Japan Meteorological Agency issued Nankai Trough earthquake emergency information with "megaearthquake advisory" for the first time since operations began in 2019, stating that "the possibility of new large-scale earthquake occurrence is relatively higher compared to normal times." In response, the government called for "special attention" from citizens to reconfirm earthquake preparedness. This emergency information is fundamentally different from conventional earthquake information, being highly uncertain information calling for preparedness for large-scale earthquakes that might occur in the future. Media faced extremely difficult responses in how to appropriately convey the intent of this information to citizens. ## Comprehensive Survey and Research Implementation In October 2024, NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute conducted a web survey of approximately 9,900 people across all prefectures regarding Nankai Trough earthquake emergency information, performing detailed analysis of public perception and evaluation of media coverage. Survey results were compiled into four Bunken blog posts, revealing the actual state of public awareness and behavior. Furthermore, at "Bunken Forum 2025" in March 2025, a symposium titled "Preparing for Nankai Trough Megaearthquake - How Media Convey Emergency Information" was held, inviting disaster coverage personnel from NHK, commercial key stations, and local commercial broadcasters, as well as academic experts. Detailed verification of television coverage surrounding the August 2024 emergency information was conducted. ## Media Coverage Challenges and Improvement Directions The symposium highlighted the difficulty of appropriately conveying highly uncertain information. The delicate balance of avoiding excessive crisis promotion while maintaining necessary vigilance is required, revealing that all media organizations struggle with expression methods and information handling. Particularly, experience sharing and improvement measure discussions were conducted among media companies regarding the approach to continuous coverage during the period from emergency information issuance to cancellation, reporting methods to promote appropriate disaster prevention actions while avoiding local resident confusion, and methods for conveying information containing scientific uncertainty. ## Recommendations for Future Disaster Prevention Coverage This research comprehensively reconstructed web survey analysis results and discussions from Bunken Forum 2025, compiling specific recommendations on how media should convey emergency information to minimize damage from Nankai Trough megaearthquakes. The article concludes that media's appropriate communication of disaster prevention information containing scientific uncertainty is an extremely important social responsibility for protecting citizens' lives and property, requiring continuous verification and improvement.

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This research and analysis by NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute examines media responses to Nankai Trough earthquake emergency information.

Published on August 1, 2025, this research was compiled by researchers Satoshi Yamamoto and Ken Furusawa from the Media Research Department, and Junnosuke Nakayama from the Public Opinion Research Department. It provides a comprehensive analysis of media coverage verification and future challenges surrounding the "Nankai Trough Earthquake Emergency Information" first issued on August 8, 2024.

First Issuance of Nankai Trough Earthquake Emergency Information

On August 8, 2024, following a magnitude 7.1 earthquake originating in the Hyuga-nada, the Japan Meteorological Agency issued Nankai Trough earthquake emergency information with "megaearthquake advisory" for the first time since operations began in 2019, stating that "the possibility of new large-scale earthquake occurrence is relatively higher compared to normal times." In response, the government called for "special attention" from citizens to reconfirm earthquake preparedness.

This emergency information is fundamentally different from conventional earthquake information, being highly uncertain information calling for preparedness for large-scale earthquakes that might occur in the future. Media faced extremely difficult responses in how to appropriately convey the intent of this information to citizens.

Comprehensive Survey and Research Implementation

In October 2024, NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute conducted a web survey of approximately 9,900 people across all prefectures regarding Nankai Trough earthquake emergency information, performing detailed analysis of public perception and evaluation of media coverage. Survey results were compiled into four Bunken blog posts, revealing the actual state of public awareness and behavior.

Furthermore, at "Bunken Forum 2025" in March 2025, a symposium titled "Preparing for Nankai Trough Megaearthquake - How Media Convey Emergency Information" was held, inviting disaster coverage personnel from NHK, commercial key stations, and local commercial broadcasters, as well as academic experts. Detailed verification of television coverage surrounding the August 2024 emergency information was conducted.

Media Coverage Challenges and Improvement Directions

The symposium highlighted the difficulty of appropriately conveying highly uncertain information. The delicate balance of avoiding excessive crisis promotion while maintaining necessary vigilance is required, revealing that all media organizations struggle with expression methods and information handling.

Particularly, experience sharing and improvement measure discussions were conducted among media companies regarding the approach to continuous coverage during the period from emergency information issuance to cancellation, reporting methods to promote appropriate disaster prevention actions while avoiding local resident confusion, and methods for conveying information containing scientific uncertainty.

Recommendations for Future Disaster Prevention Coverage

This research comprehensively reconstructed web survey analysis results and discussions from Bunken Forum 2025, compiling specific recommendations on how media should convey emergency information to minimize damage from Nankai Trough megaearthquakes.

The article concludes that media's appropriate communication of disaster prevention information containing scientific uncertainty is an extremely important social responsibility for protecting citizens' lives and property, requiring continuous verification and improvement.

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