Tokyo SME Business Conditions Survey July 2025 - Business Conditions: Slightly Declining. Outlook: Cautious Views Slightly Strengthening

Overview

This document presents the results of the business conditions survey conducted by Tokyo Metropolitan Government targeting 3,875 small and medium enterprises in Tokyo (July 2025 survey), providing detailed analysis of business conditions in June and future outlook. The survey targeted 3,875 Tokyo SMEs (1,125 manufacturing, 875 wholesale, 875 retail, 1,000 service companies), receiving responses from 1,394 companies (response rate 36.0%). The survey period was July 1-9, 2025, collecting responses about the previous month's business trends via mail and internet. ## June Business Performance The business conditions DI (percentage of companies reporting "good" conditions minus those reporting "bad") for Tokyo SMEs in June was -24 (previous month -20), declining by 4 points and showing a slight downturn. By industry, wholesale trade deteriorated from -13 to -19 (6-point decrease), services slightly worsened from -15 to -19 (4-point decrease), and retail slightly worsened from -33 to -36 (3-point decrease). Manufacturing remained nearly flat, moving from -22 to -23. The year-on-year sales DI remained flat at -24. By industry, manufacturing slightly improved from -29 to -25 (4-point increase), while retail slightly worsened from -32 to -34 (2-point decrease). Wholesale and services remained nearly flat at -16 and -21 respectively. ## Future Business Outlook The business outlook DI for the next three months (July-September) was -21 (previous month -16), declining by 5 points with cautious views slightly strengthening. By industry, manufacturing deteriorated from -16 to -24 (8-point decrease) and retail from -23 to -30 (7-point decrease). Wholesale slightly worsened from -13 to -16, and services from -10 to -13 (both 3-point decreases). ## Quarterly Survey Results The Q2 (April-June) supplementary survey showed capital investment remained nearly flat, profitability improved across all industries, cash flow turned to improvement, and labor shortages slightly eased. ## Cost Changes Comparing June 2025 with the same month last year, 47.6% reported cost increases (previous survey 48.3%), 44.0% reported no change (previous 43.3%), and 5.2% reported decreases (previous 5.4%). The largest factor for cost increases was "raw material prices" at 44.5% (previous 46.7%), followed by "labor costs" at 36.8% (previous 32.1%), "energy prices" at 10.6% (previous 14.4%), and "exchange rate fluctuations" at 3.3% (previous 3.7%). The article reveals that Tokyo SME business conditions slightly declined month-on-month with strengthening cautious views about the future, while raw material prices and labor costs continue to be cost burden factors for companies.

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This document presents the results of the business conditions survey conducted by Tokyo Metropolitan Government targeting 3,875 small and medium enterprises in Tokyo (July 2025 survey), providing detailed analysis of business conditions in June and future outlook.

The survey targeted 3,875 Tokyo SMEs (1,125 manufacturing, 875 wholesale, 875 retail, 1,000 service companies), receiving responses from 1,394 companies (response rate 36.0%). The survey period was July 1-9, 2025, collecting responses about the previous month's business trends via mail and internet.

June Business Performance

The business conditions DI (percentage of companies reporting "good" conditions minus those reporting "bad") for Tokyo SMEs in June was -24 (previous month -20), declining by 4 points and showing a slight downturn. By industry, wholesale trade deteriorated from -13 to -19 (6-point decrease), services slightly worsened from -15 to -19 (4-point decrease), and retail slightly worsened from -33 to -36 (3-point decrease). Manufacturing remained nearly flat, moving from -22 to -23.

The year-on-year sales DI remained flat at -24. By industry, manufacturing slightly improved from -29 to -25 (4-point increase), while retail slightly worsened from -32 to -34 (2-point decrease). Wholesale and services remained nearly flat at -16 and -21 respectively.

Future Business Outlook

The business outlook DI for the next three months (July-September) was -21 (previous month -16), declining by 5 points with cautious views slightly strengthening. By industry, manufacturing deteriorated from -16 to -24 (8-point decrease) and retail from -23 to -30 (7-point decrease). Wholesale slightly worsened from -13 to -16, and services from -10 to -13 (both 3-point decreases).

Quarterly Survey Results

The Q2 (April-June) supplementary survey showed capital investment remained nearly flat, profitability improved across all industries, cash flow turned to improvement, and labor shortages slightly eased.

Cost Changes

Comparing June 2025 with the same month last year, 47.6% reported cost increases (previous survey 48.3%), 44.0% reported no change (previous 43.3%), and 5.2% reported decreases (previous 5.4%). The largest factor for cost increases was "raw material prices" at 44.5% (previous 46.7%), followed by "labor costs" at 36.8% (previous 32.1%), "energy prices" at 10.6% (previous 14.4%), and "exchange rate fluctuations" at 3.3% (previous 3.7%).

The article reveals that Tokyo SME business conditions slightly declined month-on-month with strengthening cautious views about the future, while raw material prices and labor costs continue to be cost burden factors for companies.

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