Research findings from the Rural Development Team of the Agriculture and Rural Structure Project at the Policy Research Institute for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, analyzing trends in population decline and aging in rural areas and future settlement projections by agricultural area type.
According to population projections by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan's total population of 126.15 million in 2020 is predicted to fall below 100 million in 2050 and decline to 87 million (69% compared to 2020) by 2070, 50 years later. Aging will also progress simultaneously, with the aging rate (percentage of population aged 65 and over) of 28.6% in 2020 continuing to rise annually, reaching 38.7% by 2070.
Population decline in rural areas is particularly severe, with all regional types experiencing population decline by 2020, but differences between regional types will further expand. The 2050 population index will remain at 88 for urban areas, but population decline in rural areas will accelerate, with flat agricultural areas at 66, intermediate agricultural areas at 57, and mountainous agricultural areas dropping to as low as 44.
Mountainous agricultural areas, which already experienced a 40% population decline from 1980 to 2020, face an extremely severe future projection of population halving. Aging progression in rural areas is also serious, with aging rates in 2020 at 36.9% for intermediate agricultural areas and 42.4% for mountainous agricultural areas, but by 2050, aging rates are expected to rise further to 49.6% for the former and 57.3% for the latter.
For future projections of agricultural settlements, among approximately 40,000 agricultural settlements nationwide, about 12,000 settlements (approximately 30% of the total) may disappear by 2050. Particularly in mountainous agricultural areas, the proportion of disappearing settlements reaches 45%, clearly showing significant disparities by regional type.
Additionally, the decline in farmers who play important roles in maintaining agricultural settlements is also serious, with the number of core agricultural workers in 2050 projected to be less than half the current number, raising concerns about the expansion of areas where maintaining settlement functions becomes difficult.
The article concludes that this is important research findings that quantitatively clarify the acceleration of population decline and aging in rural areas, with extremely high settlement extinction risks particularly in mountainous and hilly areas.