A long-term forecast analysis result of global food supply and demand through 2034, jointly conducted by researchers Hajime Furuhashi, Tatsuji Koizumi, Tatsuya Ogura, and Nobuhiro Ito of the International Affairs Division, Policy Research Institute for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.
The global economy is considered to be in recovery from the impacts of the global spread of COVID-19, prolonged Russian invasion of Ukraine, Middle East situations, and other uncertainties. Under these circumstances, economic growth changes and concerns have emerged in many countries, with a growing sense of deceleration in economies including China, and uncertainty in global food supply and demand has increased due to various factors including weather and climate, causing significant fluctuations in global agricultural product supply, demand, and prices.
This research introduces the overview of the "Global Food Supply and Demand Outlook for 2032" with 2022 as the base year (three-year average of 2021-23) published by the Policy Research Institute for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, and reports the overview of the newly conducted "2034 Food Supply and Demand Outlook."
According to analysis results using the global food supply and demand prediction model, global per capita real GDP growth rate is predicted to decelerate to 3.5% annually for 2025-2034, compared to 3.9% annually for 2010-2019 average and 4.2% annually for 2020-2024 average. China in particular, while recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic continues, is expected to see growth rates significantly slow from 3.9% to 2.4%.
For grain and oilseed price predictions, real prices of wheat, corn, and soybeans are predicted to decline by 8%, 12%, and 15% respectively compared to 2024. This is mainly due to supply exceeding demand as agricultural productivity improvements outpace demand growth while global population reaches 8.7 billion in 2034. Specifically, grain production will increase by an average of 1.2% annually while demand growth remains at 1.0% annually, causing the supply-demand balance to shift toward oversupply.
By region, while the Asia-Pacific region continues to have the largest food demand globally, the African region will drive global demand growth with food demand increasing at 2.8% annually due to population growth.
The article concludes that global food supply and demand will shift to a supply-advantaged structure over the next decade, with continued real price decline trends.