This report by the Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training (JILPT) presents future projections of India's gig worker population. Analysis by the V.V. Giri National Labour Institute shows that by 2047, gig workers will significantly increase and become key contributors to the Indian economy, while challenges in working conditions and social security will intensify.
Key Points
1. Future Projections of Gig Worker Numbers
- 2047 gig workers: 61.6 million in medium projection (14.89% of non-agricultural workforce)
- Low projection: 32.5 million (assuming negative factors like technological disruption and economic shocks)
- High projection: 90.8 million (assuming rapid expansion of platform companies)
- Variance of up to 60 million exists
2. Growth Trends from Past to Present
- 2019-20: 6.8 million
- 2020-21: 7.7 million
- 2029-30: 23.5 million (NITI Aayog projection)
- Rapid increase from 2.01% of 2018 non-agricultural workforce
- Geometric growth predicted with more than doubling in 17 years from 2030 to 2047
3. Major Gig Economy Companies and Job Types
- Ride-sharing: Ola, Uber
- Food delivery: Zomato, Swiggy
- E-commerce: Amazon, Flipkart
- Professional services: Urban Company (beauty, cleaning, repairs, etc.)
- Expanding to healthcare, education, creative services, professional consulting
4. Skill Level Polarization Trends
- 2020: Mid-skill labor 47%, low-skill labor 31%, high-skill labor 22%
- Post-2030: Declining proportion of mid-skill workers
- Progression toward polarization between low-skill and high-skill workers
- Potential acceleration of labor market segmentation
5. Working Conditions and Income Reality
- 60% of gig workers work 7 days a week
- 47% work 12+ hours daily for supplementary income
- Typical delivery workers: 20,000-25,000 rupees net monthly income
- Professional services: 20,000-35,000 rupees net monthly income
- Over 82.5% are informal workers (excluded from social security)
6. Contribution to Economic Growth and Challenges
- Potential to boost GDP growth by up to $250 billion (1.25%) (BCG survey)
- Potential for up to 90 million jobs in non-agricultural sector
- Expected as driving force supporting developed nation status by 2047
- 11 challenges including lack of social security, algorithmic asymmetry, income uncertainty
The article reveals that while India's gig economy is rapidly expanding and becoming an engine for economic growth, worker rights protection and social security systems are not keeping pace, making the establishment of legal frameworks urgently needed.