This report by the Japan Institute for Labour Policy and Training (JILPT) covers the major tax cut and spending reduction law "One, Big, Beautiful Bill (OBBB)" enacted by the Trump administration. It provides detailed analysis of the law's content, its impact on social security systems, and reactions from labor and management organizations.
Key Points
1. Bill Overview and Fiscal Impact
- Official name: "One, Big, Beautiful Bill (OBBB)"
- Enacted: July 4, 2025 (Independence Day)
- Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimate: Approximately $3.4 trillion increase in deficit over next 10 years
- Congressional vote: All Democrats opposed, 3 Republican senators and 2 representatives also opposed
2. Stricter Medicaid (Low-Income Healthcare) Eligibility
- Beneficiaries: Approximately 78.8 million (as of January 2025)
- New requirement: Healthy adults under 65 must work, volunteer, or receive education/training 80+ hours monthly
- Impact: Approximately 17 million will lose eligibility and health insurance over next 10 years
- Eligibility verification: Increased from once to twice yearly
3. Stricter SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) Eligibility
- Beneficiaries: Approximately 41.1 million (FY2023 average)
- State cost burden: 5-15% burden for states with payment error rates above 6%
- Work requirement expansion: Age range expanded from 18-54 to 18-64
- Reduction: Approximately $300 billion over next 10 years (CBO projection)
4. Tax Cut Measures
- Overtime pay tax exemption (2025-28): Cap $12,500, reduced for incomes over $150,000
- Tip income tax exemption (2025-28): Cap $25,000, reduced for incomes over $150,000
- Child tax credit: Increased from $2,000 to $2,200, indexed to inflation
- Paid family and medical leave tax credit made permanent
5. Strengthened Illegal Immigration Enforcement
- Deportation target: Over 1 million annually
- Personnel increase: 10,000 ICE officers, 5,000 customs officers, 3,000 border patrol agents
- Special bonus: $10,000 annually for 4 years for ICE officers and border patrol agents
- Prevent 1.4 million illegal immigrants from receiving benefits
6. Labor and Management Reactions
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce: "Victory for economic growth and workers"
- AFL-CIO: "Strips health insurance from 17 million, eliminates millions of jobs"
- Economic Policy Institute (EPI): Warns forced deportation of immigrants will eliminate about 6 million jobs
The article reveals that OBBB combines massive tax cuts with social security reductions, significantly reducing healthcare and food assistance for low-income populations while substantially worsening the fiscal deficit.