35 Years Since the 1.57 Shock

Overview

A column titled "35 Years Since the 1.57 Shock" by Toru Nakazato, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Development Bank of Japan's Capital Investment Research Institute, published on August 7, 2025. Thirty-five years have passed since the 1990 total fertility rate shock of 1.57, and the piece reviews the history and current state of measures to address declining birthrates. From the 1994 Angel Plan to the 2023 "Future Strategy for Children," various policies have been implemented, but it has been difficult to stem the decline in fertility rates, with births dropping to approximately 700,000 in 2024. The fertility rate consists of the female population of childbearing age and the marital fertility rate, but in Japan, the marital fertility rate continues to decline due to later marriages and rising unmarried rates. The column discusses the need for long-term measures to address declining birthrates and the importance of continuous, comprehensive approaches rather than one-off initiatives.