The Comeback of the 2025 Osaka-Kansai Expo: Profitability in Sight, Turning Momentum into Legacy Creation - Economist Column No.2025-027

Overview

An analytical report published by the Japan Research Institute on "The Comeback of the 2025 Osaka-Kansai Expo: Profitability in Sight, Turning Momentum into Legacy Creation - Economist Column No.2025-027". With strong ticket sales after opening leading to prospects of profitability, the report proposes strategies to transform this momentum into sustainable regional development for the Osaka-Kansai Expo. ## Key Points ### 1. Report Overview - **Publishing Institution**: Japan Research Institute - **Publication Date**: July 1, 2025 - **Series**: Economist Column No.2025-027 - **Analysis Theme**: Profitability outlook and legacy creation for the Osaka-Kansai Expo ### 2. Current Status and Turning Point of the Expo - **Surge in Ticket Sales**: Maintaining a pace of approximately 500,000 tickets per week - **Cumulative Tickets Sold**: Exceeded 12.4 million as of May 2025 - **Shift in Public Opinion**: Transformation from pre-opening pessimism to optimism - **Profitability Outlook**: Business community assessment that target achievement is "virtually certain" ### 3. Financial Status and Revenue Projections - **Break-even Point**: 18 million visitors (18.4 million tickets) - **Operating Costs**: 116 billion yen (78.7% executed as of April 2025) - **Total Investment**: Approximately 760 billion yen including venue construction and infrastructure - **Path to Profitability**: Target achievable at current sales pace ### 4. Re-evaluation of Economic Ripple Effects - **Nationwide Ripple Effects**: 2.9 trillion yen (revised upward from initial estimate of 2.5 trillion yen) - **Effects within Osaka Prefecture**: 1.6 trillion yen - **Employment Creation**: Approximately 180,000 jobs - **Tourism Consumption Expansion**: Additional effects from Expo visitors' surrounding tourism ### 5. Four Strategic Areas for Legacy Creation - **Decarbonization**: - Demonstration and industrialization of hydrogen energy technology - Concentration of battery-related industries - Development as a green innovation hub - **Healthcare and Life Sciences**: - Promotion of regenerative medicine and drug discovery R&D - Cultivation of healthy life expectancy extension industries - Development of medical tourism - **Food Industry**: - Promotion of food tech and agri-tech - Global dissemination of Kansai food culture - High value-added food industry development - **SMEs and Startups**: - Construction of innovation ecosystems - International business matching - Digital transformation support ### 6. Post-Expo Site Utilization Plans - **Integrated Resort (IR)**: Opening target for early 2030s - **Green Terrace Concept**: Development of environmentally conscious urban parks - **Innovation Hub**: Utilization as a site for R&D and demonstration experiments - **MICE Functions**: Continued use as international conference and exhibition venue ### 7. Analysis of Success Factors - **Overcoming Initial Headwinds**: - Response to construction cost increases - Resolution of pavilion construction delays - Gaining public support - **Strengthening Public-Private Partnership**: Active participation from the business community - **Utilization of Digital Technology**: Expanding reach through virtual expo ### 8. Recommendations for Sustainable Development - **Moving Beyond a One-time Event**: - Industrial structure transformation triggered by the Expo - Maintenance and development of international networks - Continuation of human resource development and exchange - **Promotion of Wide-area Cooperation**: - Tourism promotion across the entire Kansai region - Formation of industrial clusters - Utilization of infrastructure development ripple effects ### 9. Future Challenges and Outlook - **Remaining Challenges**: - Balancing congestion management with visitor satisfaction - Smooth transition to legacy projects - Securing continued participation from local residents - **Vision Beyond 2030**: - Establishing position as Asia's innovation hub - Disseminating practical models for achieving SDGs - Development as a concentration area for next-generation industries This report presents concrete strategies for leveraging the success of the Osaka-Kansai Expo, which has overcome initial difficulties to achieve profitability prospects, not as a temporary achievement but as a catalyst for sustainable development in the Kansai region. It emphasizes the importance of utilizing the Expo's "comeback" as a catalyst for regional revitalization.