Geopolitics of Critical Minerals - Three Future Scenarios and Japan's Strategy

Overview

This article analyzes the geopolitical competition for critical minerals and the strategy Japan should adopt. ## Main Points ### 1. Strategic Value of Critical Minerals - Target minerals: 31 types including lithium, cobalt, rare earths - Demand forecast: 6-fold increase by 2040 (mainly due to EV transition) - Supply concentration: China dominates 60-90% of refining/processing - Price trends: Average 4.5-fold increase over past 5 years ### 2. Countries' Containment Strategies - **United States**: Promoting MSP (Mineral Security Partnership) with friendly countries - **EU**: Critical Raw Materials Act setting 10% domestic production target - **China**: Securing upstream rights through investment in resource countries - **Australia**: Building domestic rare earth processing capacity ### 3. Three Future Scenarios 1. **Bloc formation**: Western vs. China sphere supply chain fragmentation 2. **Resource nationalism**: Producer countries form OPEC-type organization 3. **Technological innovation**: Establishment of alternative materials/recycling technology ### 4. Japan's Vulnerabilities and Strengths - **Vulnerabilities**: Near-zero resource self-sufficiency, 80% dependence on China - **Strengths**: Advanced refining technology, resource-saving technology, reliability - **Opportunities**: Strategic partnerships leveraging technological capabilities - **Threats**: Supply disruption risk, price surge ### 5. Japan's Strategic Recommendations - Resource diplomacy: Package proposals combining technology cooperation and resource security - Expand reserves: From current 60 days to 180 days - Recycling: 50% urban mining utilization target - Alternative technology: Practical application of rare earth-free magnets - International rules: Lead fair resource trading framework The article recommends that Japan should utilize its technological capabilities and international trust to build a mutually beneficial resource security strategy, aiming not for simple containment but for sustainable supply chains.