The Bank of Japan released the Consumer Activity Index for July 2025, a key indicator for monthly tracking of personal consumption trends, enabling timely analysis of personal consumption which accounts for about 60% of GDP.
Consumer Activity Index for July 2025 (Seasonally Adjusted, 2015 Base = 100)
Main Indices
- Nominal Consumption Activity Index: 114.30
- Real Consumption Activity Index: 99.40
- Nominal Consumption Activity Index (Travel Balance Adjusted): 112.30
- Real Consumption Activity Index (Travel Balance Adjusted): 97.66
Real Index Components
- Real Consumption Activity Index Plus: 99.86
- Real Durable Goods Index: 104.87
- Real Non-Durable Goods Index: 90.00
- Real Services Index: 105.96
Significance and Features
The Consumer Activity Index is compiled from various sales and supply statistics for goods and services, with the following characteristics:
- Comprehensiveness: Shows similar fluctuations to household consumption in SNA final accounts
- Timeliness: Released on the 5th business day for the previous month (much earlier than final figures)
- Stability: Small sample-related fluctuations
- Correlation: High correlation with various sentiment indicators
Analytical Perspective
July's real consumption activity index of 99.40 slightly below the 2015 base level. By category:
- Durable goods (104.87) showing robust performance above base year
- Non-durable goods (90.00) below base year level
- Services (105.96) maintaining strong performance above base year The divergence between nominal and real values (114.30 vs 99.40) reflects price inflation impact, while differences with/without travel balance adjustment indicate changes in consumption patterns due to international movement.
Data Utilization
The index can be used according to analytical purposes, with various series including nominal/real values, with/without travel balance adjustment, and category breakdowns. It serves as an important indicator for understanding short-term consumption trends in financial and economic analysis.