This paper was published in Issue 160 of the Financial Review by the Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance. The research team led by Professor Naoto Jinji comprehensively analyzes the trade behavior of Japanese firms using import/export declaration data.
Key Points
1. Research Overview and Objectives
- Research Team: Naoto Jinji, Keiko Ito, Masahiro Endoh, Toshihiro Okubo, Akira Sasahara, Toshiyuki Matsuura
- Data Source: Import/export declaration data from the Ministry of Finance Customs Bureau (firm-level census data)
- Research Objective: To elucidate in detail the import/export behavior of Japanese firms
- Analysis Period: Using time-series data spanning multiple years
2. Overview of Import/Export Declaration Data
- Data Characteristics:
- Complete dataset covering all import/export transactions
- Trackable at firm level through firm identifiers
- Includes detailed information on items (HS codes), quantities, values, partner countries, etc.
- Data Advantages: Captures small-scale transactions that cannot be grasped through sample surveys
- Analytical Possibilities: Analysis of firm entry/exit, transaction continuity, market concentration, etc.
3. Key Findings from Descriptive Analysis
- Limited Number of Import/Export Firms: Limited proportion of import/export firms among all firms
- Correlation with Firm Size: Larger firms have higher probability of importing/exporting
- Productivity Premium: Import/export firms have higher productivity than non-trading firms
- Transaction Concentration: A small number of large firms account for most of the trade value
4. Dynamic Analysis of Imports/Exports
- Entry/Exit Patterns:
- Trends in new entry and exit rates
- Post-entry survival rate analysis
- Time to market establishment
- Transaction Continuity: Probability of continuing transactions with same partner country/product
- Market Expansion/Contraction: Patterns of change in number of firms' import/export destinations
5. Verification of Causal Relationships through Regression Analysis
- Firm Characteristics and Import/Export Probability:
- Effects of productivity, size, capital intensity, etc.
- Role of industry characteristics
- Interrelationship between Exports and Imports: Complementarity/substitutability of exports and imports
- Geographic Factors: Effects of distance, language, FTAs, etc.
- Exchange Rate Effects: Firm responses to exchange rate fluctuations
6. Policy Implications
- SME Internationalization Support: Identification of entry barriers and design of support measures
- Trade Promotion Policies: Formulation of effective import/export promotion measures
- Industrial Policy: Points of policy intervention for strengthening international competitiveness
- Regional Economic Implications: Measures to promote internationalization of regional firms
7. Research Contributions and Limitations
- Academic Contributions:
- Discovery of new stylized facts about Japanese firms' trade behavior
- Empirical verification of international trade theory
- Policy Contributions: Evidence-based trade policy formulation
- Research Limitations: Non-inclusion of service trade, difficulty in identifying intra-firm trade
- Future Challenges: Deepening analysis through connection with other data
This research is a pioneering study that comprehensively analyzes the import/export behavior of Japanese firms using firm-level micro data, providing important implications for understanding the reality of international trade and policy formulation.