The Fisheries Agency reported that the Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency announced the FY2025 Long-term Saury Fishing and Oceanographic Forecast (Doto to Joban Waters), predicting this year's fishing conditions as "low level comparable to last year."
For the fishing forecast from August to December this year, the migration volume throughout the fishing season is expected to be at a low level comparable to last year, with the first half (August-September) expected to be below last year while the latter half (October-December) is expected to exceed last year. The proportion of 1-year-old fish in catches is expected to be comparable to last year, while the weight of 1-year-old fish is predicted to exceed last year, with expectations for improved fish body size.
Regarding migration patterns by period, fish schools are expected to migrate centered on the high seas from 150°E to 165°E east of Hokkaido to Urup Island from August to September, and relatively concentrated fish schools are predicted to migrate to the Northern Territories surrounding waters and adjacent high seas in October. This shows trends similar to last year's distribution patterns, serving as important operational guidelines for fishermen.
In terms of oceanographic conditions, from August to early September 2025, the northern limit of the Kuroshio Extension in offshore waters is expected to shift from slightly northward to considerably northward, and the southern limit of the first branch of the Oyashio is expected to shift from normal to slightly northward, forming cold water areas in the Sanriku offshore waters. The southern limit of the second branch of the Oyashio is expected to shift from slightly northward to extremely northward, and these oceanographic changes are considered to affect saury migration and distribution.
This forecast is conducted as part of the Fisheries Agency's "Fisheries Resource Survey and Evaluation Promotion Project," aimed at improving operational efficiency and management stability for fishermen and distribution/processing businesses, and promoting rational and sustainable resource utilization. Amid continuing decline of saury resources in recent years, it is positioned as an initiative to support sustainable development of the entire industry by providing forecast information based on scientific evidence.