This analysis of the USDA's July 2025 Grain Supply and Demand Report examines global grain supply-demand trends and their implications for Japan.
The 2025/26 global grain supply-demand situation anticipates tight conditions with production falling below consumption. All four major commodities - wheat, corn, rice, and soybeans - face deteriorating supply-demand balance due to reduced harvests from climate change and increased consumption in emerging markets.
By grain type, wheat faces reduced production from drought, while corn production growth is hampered by adverse weather. Rice is affected by changing rainfall patterns in Asia, and soybean consumption exceeds production driven by plant-based protein demand.
For Japan, upward pressure on international grain prices is strengthening, raising concerns about food price increases and procurement instability given Japan's high import dependence. Rising feed grain prices are also expected to impact livestock product prices.
The article concludes that global grain supply shortages make strengthening Japan's food security an urgent priority.