This article provides a detailed analysis of Taiwan's political situation from early April to early July 2025 by Ishihara Tadahiro, Associate Professor of the Japan Studies Program at National Chengchi University.
Taiwan's politics in 2025 began with DPP's Ko Chien-ming proposing recall activities against 41 KMT-affiliated legislators on January 4, developing into a nationwide "mass recall" movement. On June 20, the Central Election Commission announced that recall votes for 24 KMT legislators would be held on July 26, followed by decisions for votes on August 23 for two from Nantou County, resulting in recall votes in a total of 26 constituencies. Meanwhile, recall proposals against DPP legislators promoted by the KMT failed to reach the required number of signatures, showing a clear power difference between parties.
President Lai Ching-te delivered a speech titled "Overcoming Headwinds, Steadily Moving Forward" on the first anniversary of his inauguration on May 20, calling for dialogue and bipartisan unity with the opposition. However, opinion polls showed different results from multiple organizations regarding administration satisfaction, with TVBS showing 32% satisfaction and 55% dissatisfaction while DPP surveys showed 57.3% satisfaction, revealing Taiwan society's division in numbers. Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation surveys showed 57.7% "disagree" with the "mass recall" while 62.2% intended to "go vote," indicating high political interest.
Regarding cross-strait relations, former President Ma Ying-jeou conducted his fourth visit to China from June 14-27, participating in the 17th Straits Forum. In Dunhuang, Gansu Province, he stated "My position is that both sides should pursue peaceful democratic unification," receiving loud applause from the audience, though Chinese government media did not report this statement, showing a subtle reaction. In US-Taiwan relations, the Trump administration's introduction of "mutual tariffs" imposed 32% high tariffs on Taiwan, shocking Taiwan society. Brookings Institution polls showed Taiwan residents' trust in the US significantly decreased, with "cannot trust the US" rising sharply to 37.9% (+13.9% from previous year).
The article concludes that the "mass recall" serves as a touchstone for Taiwan's democratic system beyond mere political retaliation, highlighting the current state of Taiwan politics facing complex challenges including intensified confrontation between ruling and opposition parties, decreased trust in the US, and exploration of relations with China.