A study re-examining the relationship between international trade and military conflicts, focusing on differences in state regimes.
Key Points
1. Research Background and Motivation
- Military conflicts persist globally, including Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the 2023 Hamas-Israel conflict
- Interstate military conflicts have not decreased since World War II
- While global imports have rapidly increased, especially since the 2000s, conflicts continue
- Russia invaded Ukraine despite Ukraine being its 16th most important trading partner
2. New Research Perspective
- Incorporates differences in state regimes (democracies, authoritarian states, hybrid states) into the analysis
- In democracies, businesses and citizens can influence government through voting
- In authoritarian states, rulers may take military action without considering negative impacts on citizens
- Re-examines the relationship between trade and peace since Montesquieu's "The Spirit of Laws" in the 18th century
3. Methodology and Data
- Uses interstate military conflict data from 1976-2014
- Quantitative estimation analysis combining bilateral trade data and state regime data
- Utilizes reliable data sources including Correlates of War database and UN Comtrade
4. Key Research Findings
- Increased bilateral trade is associated with reduced conflict probability
- This relationship is particularly pronounced among democratic state pairs
- No trade-conflict deterrence relationship found among authoritarian state pairs
- State regime combinations have a decisive impact on trade's conflict deterrent effect
The article concludes that the conflict-deterring effect of international trade heavily depends on state regimes, being effective between democracies but limited between authoritarian states.