Publication Results and Economic Trend Analysis of the Tertiary Industry Activity Index for June 2025
The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) published the Tertiary Industry Activity Index for June 2025 on August 18. The seasonally adjusted index reached 105.0 (2019-2020 average=100), recording a 0.5% increase from the previous month and marking three consecutive months of growth. The original index also reached 105.0, showing a 3.3% increase compared to the same month of the previous year, demonstrating the continued recovery trend across the service industry. The government revised its basic assessment for June upward to "recovery movement continues, although some areas show signs of stagnation."
Detailed Analysis of Sector-Wise Trends and Contributing Factors to Growth
Among the major sectors contributing to the increase, transport and postal services rose 3.3% from the previous month, providing the largest upward contribution of 0.28 percentage points. Within this sector, general freight truck transportation increased due to expanded logistics activities, while taxi and bus services also performed well. Electricity, gas, heat supply, and water supply rose 4.1% from the previous month (contributing 0.16 percentage points), primarily driven by increased air conditioning demand due to nationwide high temperatures. In retail trade, machinery equipment retail and other retail sectors increased 0.7% from the previous month due to increased sales of information appliances and strong seasonal merchandise sales.
Challenge Analysis of Sectors Acting as Downward Factors
Conversely, among declining sectors, information and communications fell 0.9% from the previous month, contributing negative 0.12 percentage points. Activities decelerated in both software and information processing/provision services. Real estate decreased 1.0% from the previous month (contributing negative 0.09 percentage points), primarily due to reductions in detached house and condominium sales brokerage. In lifestyle and entertainment-related services, restaurants and food services declined due to reduced customer traffic from extreme heat, while hotels and inns also underperformed due to decreased guest numbers.
Service Industry Structure and Policy Implications
Broadly defined personal services increased 0.7% from the previous month, while broadly defined business services rose 1.1%, both showing steady expansion. The structure of seven out of ten sectors rising and three declining reflects the diversification of the service economy and characteristic differences among individual sectors. These results demonstrate the complexity of impacts that digitalization advancement, lifestyle changes, and climate change adaptation have on service industries during the recovery process from the COVID-19 pandemic. METI continues to improve policy response accuracy through continuous monitoring.