This analysis examines the impact of Trump tariffs on US exports based on the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)'s unique value-added trade statistics published on June 30, 2025.
Characteristics of US Value-Added Trade Statistics
In an increasingly complex global supply chain, North American-produced automobiles cross borders an average of 8 times before being exported as finished vehicles, making the flow of goods highly complex. Traditional trade statistics attribute the entire product price to the country of origin, failing to capture the reality where value is added across multiple countries.
BEA TiVA, launched by the BEA in December 2021, provides more timely, detailed, and consistent value-added trade statistics aligned with official US statistics. In June 2025, functionality was added allowing users to customize and download the database.
Value-Added Structure of US Exports
As of 2023, US domestic value-added accounted for .3637 trillion (89.5%) of total US goods and services exports, while foreign value-added accounted for .9 billion (10.5%). US domestic value-added nearly doubled from .291 trillion (85.7%) in 2007, with the ratio also increasing.
Breaking down foreign value-added by country/region: Europe leads with .3 billion (23.7%), followed by Canada with .9 billion (19.5%), Asia-Pacific excluding Japan and China with .7 billion (17.3%), Mexico with .4 billion (11.0%), China with .6 billion (8.9%), and Japan with .0 billion (4.7%).
Declining Trend in Value-Added from China and Japan
China's value-added peaked at 13.1% in 2018 and has continued declining to 8.9% in 2023. This timing coincides with the Trump administration's additional tariff measures against China that began in 2018, potentially indicating supply chain shifts to ASEAN and other regions due to US-China tensions.
Japan's value-added also declined from 6.8% in 2007 to 4.7% in 2023, and is the only country whose absolute value fell below 2007 levels. However, Japan's direct investment stock in the US reached .2 billion at the end of 2024, maintaining its position as the top country for six consecutive years, with Japanese companies in the US leading in job creation (529,200 people) and US goods exports (.3 billion).
The article analyzes that import restriction measures like Trump tariffs could potentially affect approximately 10% of US exports, with measures against Europe having the largest impact.