This is the result of a monthly survey on rice supply and demand dynamics and price levels conducted by the Japan Rice Stable Supply Support Organization, published on July 4, 2025 (June 2025 edition).
Key Points
1. Survey Overview and Purpose
- Monthly survey to understand rice supply and demand dynamics and price levels in trading conditions
- Survey results from rice trading stakeholders indexed as DI (Diffusion Index)
- Analysis from two perspectives: current situation assessment and 3-month outlook assessment
- Values closer to 100 indicate "tight/high" while values closer to 0 indicate "loose/low"
2. Significant Deterioration in Supply and Demand Dynamics for Food Rice
- Current situation DI: 52 (significant decrease of -36 points from previous month)
- Outlook DI: 43 (significant decrease of -30 points from previous month)
- Sharp decline from previous month (May) levels of 88 for current situation and 73 for outlook
- Views of "tight" supply and demand have retreated significantly, shifting toward "loose" conditions
3. Downward Trend in Rice Price Levels
- Current situation DI: 83 (decrease of -10 points from previous month)
- Outlook DI: 35 (significant decrease of -24 points from previous month)
- Recognition that current price levels are high remains strong but has weakened from previous month
- 3-month outlook shows strengthening views of price declines, with DI falling below 50 to 35
4. Comparison with Historical Trends
- June 2023: Supply/demand current situation DI 55, price current situation DI 47 at low levels
- June 2024: Supply/demand current situation DI 79, price current situation DI 82 showing increases
- June 2025: Supply/demand current situation DI 52, price current situation DI 83 with rapid deterioration in supply/demand
The article indicates that as of June 2025, rice supply and demand dynamics and price outlook have deteriorated significantly from the previous month, with rapidly growing concerns among market participants about supply loosening and price declines.