Key Findings from IEA Report
The International Energy Agency (IEA) released the "Global Hydrogen Report 2025" on September 12, indicating that despite ongoing cancellations and delays of low-emission hydrogen production projects, significant increases in production capacity are expected by 2030, though not at the rapid pace seen in the early 2020s when project announcements surged.
2030 Production Capacity Forecast
Substantial Production Expansion: Annual production capacity from projects that are operational, under construction, or have reached final investment decision is expected to increase more than five-fold from approximately 800,000 tons in 2024 to over 4 million tons by 2030.
Additional Potential Capacity: An additional 6 million tons annually could become operational by 2030 if effective policies to secure demand are implemented.
Global Hydrogen Demand and Supply Structure
Global hydrogen demand in 2024 reached approximately 100 million tons, a 2% increase from the previous year. However, consumers remain concentrated in traditional industrial sectors such as oil refining, with fossil fuel-derived hydrogen without greenhouse gas capture measures still accounting for the majority of usage.
Cost Structure Challenges and Changes
Current Price Gap: Globally, producing hydrogen from fossil fuels remains cheaper than water electrolysis using renewable energy. This gap has widened due to declining natural gas prices and rising electrolyzer equipment costs.
Future Projections: Particularly in Europe, the IEA predicts that cost differences will narrow by 2030 due to rapid renewable energy growth and new regulations.
China's Leading Position
China leads the deployment of electrolyzers for low-emission hydrogen production, accounting for 65% of global electrolyzer capacity that is installed or at the final investment decision stage. However, considering transportation costs and tariffs, Chinese electrolyzer installations outside China do not have significant cost advantages compared to other manufacturers.
Enhanced Information Tools
Alongside the report, the IEA released updated versions of the "Hydrogen Production and Infrastructure Project Database" and launched the new "Hydrogen Tracker," providing highly useful tools for Japanese companies' hydrogen-related information gathering.