Basic Structure of Goods Trade
The United States recorded the world's largest goods trade deficit of $1.2154 trillion in 2024, significantly exceeding the second-largest deficit holder, the United Kingdom ($288.7 billion). Meanwhile, the U.S. maintains the world's largest services trade surplus of $311.9 billion, resulting in a combined goods and services trade deficit of $903.5 billion. In terms of trade volume, goods exports reached $2.0798 trillion and goods imports reached $3.2952 trillion.
In terms of GDP ratio, the goods trade balance-to-GDP ratio has remained stable at a deficit range of 3% to 7% since 2010, while the services balance-to-GDP ratio has remained stable at a surplus of 0.8% to 1.5%. A characteristic feature is that this structural goods trade deficit has not become a growth impediment for the U.S. economy.
By product category, in industrial raw materials, energy and fuel exports amount to $338.2 billion (46.5% of industrial raw material exports) and imports to $255.5 billion (37.8% of industrial raw material imports). For metals and minerals, exports total $132.4 billion and imports $187.9 billion, with Canada and Mexico as major trading partners. In chemicals, exports of $142.9 billion exceed imports of $97.4 billion, maintaining an export surplus.
In food and beverage trade, the U.S. exports $11.5 billion in grains and feed and $10.2 billion in livestock products to Mexico, while importing $23.0 billion in vegetables, fruits, and nuts. With Canada, the U.S. exports $7.6 billion in grains and feed and $11.2 billion in livestock products, while importing $8.2 billion in vegetables, fruits, and nuts, forming a mutually complementary structure.
Analysis of Goods Trade Using Gravity Model
Gravity model analysis confirms that U.S. trade volume follows the basic law of being proportional to trading partners' GDP and inversely proportional to geographical distance. The influence of geographical proximity is particularly pronounced, as evidenced by the close trade relationships with NAFTA countries Canada and Mexico.
Canada is the most important supplier, accounting for about half of U.S. energy and fuel imports, and is also a major supplier of aluminum (the world's fourth-largest producer) and metal minerals. Mexico functions as an important exporter in the vegetables, fruits, and nuts sector while serving as a crucial trading partner for metal minerals.
In critical minerals trade structure, aluminum imports from Canada primarily include bauxite and alumina, while copper imports are centered on Chile (the world's largest producer). However, refining and processing processes are concentrated in China, highlighting supply chain vulnerabilities.
The second Trump administration introduced comprehensive tariff measures in 2025, imposing additional tariffs on a wide range of countries and products immediately after taking office. On April 2, it introduced a "reciprocal tariff" system (adding country-specific surcharge rates to a base rate of 10%), implementing measures that are more extensive and target virtually all countries compared to the first administration.
This gravity model analysis demonstrates that geographical and economic factors, along with institutional factors (trade agreements, language commonality) and resource endowment complementarity, are the primary determinants of U.S. trade flows. The existence of trade agreements and linguistic and cultural commonality have been confirmed to have trade promotion effects that exceed simple distance effects.