IMF World Economic Outlook: At a Critical Juncture Amid Policy Shifts

Presentation by Akihiko Yoshida, Director of IMF Asia and Pacific Regional Office, at RIETI BBL Seminar on May 23, 2025, discussing the April IMF World Economic Outlook. The keyword is "uncertainty," with effective tariff rates reaching 100-year highs and global growth forecasts significantly downgraded from January 2025. U.S. policy uncertainty indicators reached record levels, raising concerns about trade friction intensification and declining international cooperation. While only the U.S. exceeds pre-COVID trends, emerging economies including China show large negative gaps with unhealed scars. Trade restrictions increase annually, with "fragmentation" appearing more frequently in corporate earnings calls. Policy priority is trade environment stabilization, requiring tariff restraint and international cooperation. Risk of 2025 global real GDP growth falling below 2% increased to 30% from previous 17%. Tariffs and trade wars negatively impact all countries both short and long term.