Professor Yutaka Nomura et al.'s paper "Ultra-long-term Future Prospects of Japanese Economy Using System Dynamics Models" analyzes potential futures for Japan's economy through 2100 using tens of thousands of simulation runs. The results show Japan's population could range from a maximum of 130 million to a minimum of 40 million, with GDP ranging from $20 trillion to $3.0 trillion.
The study employs System Dynamics methodology to model complex interactions between demographic, economic, and environmental factors over the ultra-long term. Multiple scenario analyses examine various policy interventions and their potential impacts on Japan's economic trajectory.
Key findings emphasize the critical importance of:
- Youth income distribution policies to encourage higher birth rates
- Foreign worker acceptance to offset population decline
- Early expansion of renewable energy to ensure sustainable growth
- Technological innovation to maintain productivity growth
The wide range of outcomes demonstrates the uncertainty inherent in long-term projections while highlighting the crucial role of policy choices in shaping Japan's economic future. The research provides valuable insights for policymakers designing strategies to address demographic and environmental challenges over the coming decades.