This report explains the final summary of a study group focused on elderly policies regarding service delivery systems and other approaches toward 2040.
In 2040, the number of elderly people aged 65 and over will reach its peak, and while the combined needs for long-term care and medical services will expand due to the increase in the population aged 85 and over, the working-age population will decrease. There are significant differences in the timing of service demand peaks by region, with approximately 30% of insurers in rural areas having already reached their peak before 2024, while approximately 43% of insurers in urban areas are expected to reach their peak after 2045.
The study group classified the entire country into three regional types: "mountainous and depopulating areas," "metropolitan areas," and "general cities," aiming to ensure effective and efficient service delivery systems according to regional circumstances. For mountainous and depopulating areas, the direction is multifunctionalization of facilities and efficiency through cooperation; for metropolitan areas, infrastructure development to respond to rapid demand increases; and for general cities, ensuring adequate service provision without excess or shortage.
Regarding securing human resources, the plan is to promote enhancement of human resource securing measures including treatment improvement, retention through employment management improvement, and productivity improvement through technology introduction and task shifting/sharing. Additionally, as common challenges for "welfare services" collectively referring to long-term care services, disability welfare services, and childcare, emphasis is placed on promoting cooperation among businesses and related parties in the region and realizing a community-based inclusive society.
Regarding the community-based integrated care system, further cooperation between medical care and long-term care is necessary toward 2040, with deepening required considering the increase in elderly people with dementia and those living alone. Specifically, promotion of long-term care prevention and health promotion, community development where elderly people can play active roles, and construction of appropriate medical-care cooperation systems are required.
The article concludes that toward 2040, when population decline and aging will progress, it is essential to ensure effective and efficient service delivery systems that enable elderly people to live independently in all regions through planned responses considering regional and temporal axes.