The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) published the August 2025 edition of the "Monthly Report on Rice" on August 21, 2025. The report revealed that July rice prices reached record-high levels, showing significant changes in the trading situation of 2024 crop rice.
2024 Crop Rice Price Trends: Record High Levels Achieved The relative trading price of 2024 crop rice in July 2025 averaged 26,918 yen per 60kg across all varieties. This represents a substantial increase of +11,292 yen (+72%) compared to the same month last year, while showing a decrease of -695 yen (-3%) from the previous month. The crop year average price through July 2025 reached 24,790 yen per 60kg, marking the highest price on record for transactions between shipping operators and wholesale dealers since comparable data became available from 1990.
Trading Characteristics: Faster Contract Progress Than Usual The trading volume in July was 40,000 tons. 2024 crop rice trading (contracting) progressed at a faster pace than usual years, with transactions reaching the final stage by July. Therefore, the impact of July trading prices on overall 2024 crop rice transactions is considered limited. For reference, prices including 2023 crop government stockpile rice stood at 26,185 yen per 60kg.
Market Structure Changes and Supply-Demand Dynamics The current price increase shows an extremely large year-on-year growth rate of 72%, indicating significant changes in the supply-demand structure of the rice market. The early contract progress appears to reflect price increase expectations from both producers and distributors, representing a notable departure from conventional trading patterns.
Policy Implications and Market Impact The formation of record-high price levels provides important insights for supply-demand adjustment functions, stockpile operations, import policies, and other aspects of rice policy. Multi-faceted policy challenges have emerged, particularly regarding spillover effects to consumer prices, impacts on production incentives, and influences on planting and price formation for 2025 crop rice.
This report serves not merely as a statistical compilation but as a crucial policy document clearly demonstrating that Japan's rice market is at a historic turning point.