This article details the "Household Projections for Japan by Prefecture (2024 Edition)" published by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, explaining specific projection results and future household structure changes.
Key Points
1. Future Projections of Total General Households
- Nationwide general households will peak in 2030 and then decline
- By 2050, households will decrease by 5.6% compared to 2020
- 40 prefectures will see household decreases, with 28 experiencing over 10% decline
- Akita Prefecture will see a 29.1% decrease, with 9 prefectures experiencing over 20% decline
- 7 prefectures including Tokyo will increase, but all will peak and decline during the projection period
2. Shrinking Average Household Size
- 2020: 1.92 persons (Tokyo) to 2.61 persons (Yamagata)
- 2050: 1.78 persons (Tokyo/Hokkaido) to 2.15 persons (Yamagata)
- By 2040, 26 prefectures will fall below 2 persons per household
- By 2050, 34 prefectures will have less than 2 persons per household
- Only 13 prefectures including Yamagata, Fukui, and Saga will maintain 2+ persons
3. Rapid Growth of Single-Person Households and Regional Disparities
- Nationwide single-person households will reach 23.3 million by 2050 (10.2% increase from 2020)
- Okinawa 31.0% increase, Saitama 24.1%, Shiga 23.3%, Chiba 22.0%
- However, 15 prefectures will see decreases: Kochi -15.3%, Akita -12.4%, Aomori -12.2%
- Single-person household ratio will rise from 38.0% (2020) to 44.3% (2050) nationwide
- Tokyo will see over half as single-person households: 50.2% (2020) to 54.1% (2050)
4. Decline in Couple-Only and Households with Children
- Couple-only households: 11.2% nationwide decrease, declining in 45 prefectures
- Major decreases: Akita -31.7%, Kochi -31.0%, Kagoshima -30.6%
- Couple with children households: 19.3% nationwide decrease, declining in all prefectures
- Significant decreases: Aomori -38.6%, Akita -37.6%, Nagasaki -35.9%
- Single parent households: 3.5% nationwide decrease, declining in 40 prefectures
5. Widening Regional Disparities in Institutional Population
- 2020: Tokyo 1.5% (lowest) to Nagasaki 4.0% (highest)
- 2050: Tokyo 2.1% (lowest) to Aomori 6.6% (highest)
- Lower rates in major metropolitan areas, higher in Tohoku, Kyushu, and Shikoku regions
- 8 prefectures including Hokkaido, Aomori, and Akita will see 2+ percentage point increases
- Reflects increasing institutional residents due to population aging
The article demonstrates with specific data that Japan's household structure is undergoing a major shift toward single-person households, with significant regional variations in household decline and aging impacts.