The Value of Potential Customer Information: Empirical Analysis Using Sales History Data [Non-Technical Summary]

1. Research Background and Problem Awareness

Information about potential sales destinations is an important intangible asset that enables efficient sales activities by sales representatives. Understanding the role of marketing-related information in corporate activities is extremely useful not only for business practice but also for considering various policy support measures, and this research originates from such problem awareness.

2. Research Objectives and Analysis Targets

This study focuses on the value of information in searching for potential sales destinations and empirically examines the effects on corporate activities when such information is generated and utilized within companies. Specifically, it analyzes the causal effects of providing high-probability prospect information generated by telemarketing personnel (inside salespersons) to sales representatives (field salespersons) in corporate leasing contract sales activities.

3. Empirical Analysis Challenges and Solutions

The most difficult empirical problem is the "selective labeling problem." This refers to situations where contract success or failure is only observed for destinations contacted by sales representatives. In other words, even if information about high-probability prospects is provided, if sales representatives do not conduct sales activities with those customers, it becomes difficult to identify the causal effects of information provision.

4. Analytical Methods and Machine Learning Utilization

To overcome this empirical challenge, the study utilized recent developments in empirical methods centered on machine learning techniques. A series of information including case exploration and information generation, sales activity implementation, and observation of contract success and failure results was measured, and machine learning models mimicking the behavior of sales representatives and telemarketing personnel were constructed.

5. Analysis Results of Independent Sales by Sales Representatives

In the analysis of customer groups where sales representatives conducted sales activities independently without information provision from telemarketing personnel, it was confirmed that conducting sales activities according to sales representatives' case selection criteria achieved higher contract rates than following telemarketing personnel's case selection criteria. This shows that sales representatives were making effective customer selections utilizing existing knowledge and experience.

6. Analysis Results with Information Provision

On the other hand, for customer groups with information provision from telemarketing personnel, it was found that telemarketing personnel's case selection criteria were relatively superior. This demonstrates that information from telemarketing personnel who conduct specialized information collection and analysis significantly contributes to sales activity efficiency.

7. Empirical Analysis Using Contraction Method

Using the contraction technique proposed by Kleinberg et al. (2018), the superiority of case selection criteria including actual sales activities was compared. Results confirmed that for corporate groups with information provision from telemarketing personnel, selecting customers to contact according to telemarketing personnel's case selection criteria achieved higher contract rates than actual performance or sales representatives' selections.

8. Key Findings Regarding Information Value

For corporate classes where sales representatives are considered to lack sufficient information, it was confirmed that additional provision of information generated by telemarketing personnel improved contract probability. This shows that the value of specialized information collection functions is demonstrated in situations where information asymmetry exists.

9. Limitations of Information Provision Effects

On the other hand, for customer classes where sales representatives typically contact independently, no particular value was recognized in information generated by telemarketing personnel. This suggests that in areas where sales representatives already possess sufficient information and experience, the marginal utility of additional information provision is low.

10. Policy Implications and Management Practice Insights

The results of this research suggest the importance of combining multiple information production technologies for efficient corporate activity implementation. In sales organizations, it is important to clarify the role division between field sales and inside sales and construct information sharing systems that leverage each's strengths. Additionally, since information value depends on context, it was shown that companies need to formulate information investment strategies according to their own situations.

※ This summary was automatically generated by AI. Please refer to the original article for accuracy.