This article analyzes the impact of capital flows from overseas open-ended funds on Japan's financial capital markets.
Main Points
1. Presence of Overseas Funds in Japanese Markets
- Japanese stock ownership ratio: 31.8% (historical high)
- Japanese government bond holdings: 14.5% (185 trillion yen on amount basis)
- Capital inflow through investment trusts: 15 trillion yen annual scale
- Active management ratio: 65% (passive 35%)
2. Characteristics and Fluctuation Factors of Capital Flows
- Volatility: 3.5 times that of domestic investors
- Main fluctuation factors: Global risk on/off
- Exchange rate sensitivity: About 100 billion yen inflow per 1 yen depreciation
- Response to BOJ policy: Interest rate hike expectations accelerate outflows
3. Market Impact Mechanism
- Price formation: Explains 40% of intraday fluctuations
- Liquidity supply: 35% of TSE First Section trading volume
- Volatility amplification: 2x during stress periods
- Sector disparities: Concentrated investment in growth stocks
4. Systemic Risk Assessment
- Sudden capital outflow scenario: Maximum 50 trillion yen (30 trillion yen in 2008)
- Market impact: Nikkei average 15-20% downward pressure
- Yen appreciation pressure: 10-15 yen appreciation factor due to repatriation
- Bond market: Yield curve steepening
5. Policy Response and Market Resilience Enhancement Strategy
- Market monitoring system: AI anomaly detection system
- Liquidity supply framework: Coordination between BOJ and GPIF
- Investor base diversification: Attract Asian/Middle Eastern funds
- Regulatory response: International coordination of NBFI regulation
The article concludes that while overseas funds contribute to market efficiency, they can also become vulnerability factors during stress periods, making appropriate monitoring and crisis management systems important.