As the 2025 Trade White Paper, this article analyzes the international economic order in transition and Japan's trade strategy.
Main Points
1. Structural Changes in International Economic Order
- Solidification of U.S.-China confrontation: From decoupling to de-risking
- Mainstreaming of economic security: Reorganization of critical material supply chains
- Expansion of protectionism: Intensifying tariff competition
- Rise of Global South: Increasing influence as third pole
2. Tariff Shock Scenario Analysis
- Trump tariffs (assumed): 60% on China, 10-20% on others
- Impact on Japan: Exports -3.5%, GDP downward pressure 0.8%
- Supply chain reorganization cost: 15 trillion yen over 5 years
- Response strategy: Accelerate production shift to ASEAN/India
3. Direction of Japan's Trade Strategy
- Multi-layered cooperation: Deepen CPTPP, RCEP, Japan-EU EPA
- Digital trade: Join DEPA, lead data flow rules
- Green trade: Mutual recognition of carbon credits
- Economic security: Secure semiconductors, batteries, critical minerals
4. Industrial Competitiveness Enhancement Strategy
- Pursue economies of scale: Promote domestic corporate integration/cooperation
- Innovation investment: R&D investment 4% of GDP target
- Talent mobility: Actively accept highly skilled foreign talent
- Digitalization: Manufacturing DX to improve productivity by 30%
5. 2030 Outlook
- Formation of Asia-Pacific economic zone: Japan as rule-maker
- Inclusive growth: Support SME globalization
- Sustainability: Lead ESG standard internationalization
- Resilience: Build emergency supply chains
The article concludes that in an international environment of increasing uncertainty, Japan should act as a guardian of free and open economic order while promoting international coordination while maintaining strategic autonomy.